skip navigation

USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 7-10

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/07/21, 2:00PM EDT

Share

The playoff places in the Atlantic Division could be settled this weekend, and the door is open elsewhere


Steevan Dos Santos could face his former club on Sunday evening as the Tampa Bay Rowdies visit Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, where they could have a chance to clinch the Atlantic Division title. | Photo courtesy Mallory Neil / Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

The four playoff berths in the USL Championship’s Atlantic Division could be decided by the end of this weekend’s action, and there is plenty to keep an eye on when it comes to the postseason races around the fourth-place line in the Central, Mountain and Pacific Divisions as well after Wednesday night’s games.

Here are four games to watch as the picture comes further into focus, and where everyone stands in the big picture.

Matches to Watch


New Mexico United
Mountain
Saturday, October 9
7:00 PM EST
Isotopes Park
Rio Grande Valley FC
Mountain

New Mexico United’s draw with Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night coupled with Austin Bold FC’s victory against Tacoma Defiance has turned this meeting between New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley FC into a must-win for both clubs. United and the Toros have now played one game more than Austin but sit below them in fifth and sixth place respectively in the standings. The side that emerges from this one victorious will get a boost to its chances, but only if Bold FC fails to take victory against OKC Energy FC as well on Sunday. The side that comes out on the short end – especially if Austin wins – is going to have a difficult road ahead to reach the playoff field.

San Diego Loyal SC
Pacific
Saturday, October 9
10:30 PM EST
Torero Stadium
Sacramento Republic FC
Pacific

Sacramento Republic FC’s up-and-down season continued on Wednesday night in a 2-1 defeat to Oakland Roots SC, which not only saw Oakland move back into fourth place in the standings but also claim the head-to-head tiebreaker between the NorCal rivals when it comes to final positions. That makes Republic FC’s trip to San Diego Loyal SC – which can’t quite clinch this weekend but can take another big step forward with a win – a must-win for the visitors at Torero Stadium, or else hope that other results end up in their favor.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Atlantic
Sunday, October 10
6:00 PM EST
Torero Stadium
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Atlantic

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC will be hoping for the Rowdies to do it a favor on Thursday night and take victory against the Charleston Battery at Al Lang Stadium, which would mean the Hounds only need a draw to clinch their fourth consecutive trip to the postseason when the Rowdies visit on Sunday evening. Both teams will looking for all three points, though, with Tampa Bay trying to end its winless history at Highmark Stadium as it continues its pursuit of the best record in the Championship and clinching the Atlantic Division title with wins in both games this week.

San Antonio FC
Mountain
Sunday, October 10
8:30 PM EST
Toyota Field
Memphis 901 FC
Central

San Antonio FC’s late equalizer by Kortne Ford against El Paso Locomotive FC edged the side into second place in the standings past Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. With the Switchbacks looking to regain that position on Friday night on the road against Real Monarchs SLC, San Antonio could be in a position against Memphis 901 FC and former player Kyle Murphy – now 901 FC’s leading scorer with 17 goals this season – where it needs a win against the surging Central Division side to keep pace with Colorado Springs in the race for a home game in the playoffs.

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 18-4-5, 59pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OAK (10/9)
Rising FC will have taken note of a much more focused display from Oakland Roots SC in its midweek victory against Sacramento Republic FC. A win at Wild Horse Pass on Saturday night would keep the pressure on the Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead of their key game on the road at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Sunday evening as the two teams vie for the best record overall.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 13-10-4, 43pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (80%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next:vs. SAC (10/9)
Oakland Roots SC’s victory against Sacramento Republic FC on Wednesday night means SD Loyal can’t clinch this weekend, but it can take another big step toward that goal while also putting Republic FC’s chances in further peril on Saturday night at Torero Stadium.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 94%
Projected Finish: 3rd (61%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Up Next: at TAC (10/9)
Orange County has yet to defeat Tacoma Defiance this season in three meetings. There would be no better boost to change that on Saturday night, and the other teams vying for fourth place would certainly be appreciative of it as well.
4. Oakland Roots SC
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 5th (29%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHX (10/9)
Roots SC got a massive win against Sacramento Republic FC on Wednesday that didn’t just move the side back into fourth place but also earned the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams should that become necessary. Saturday’s trip to Phoenix Rising FC is going to be a big challenge now.
5. LA Galaxy II
5. LA Galaxy II
Record: 9-12-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 38%
Projected Finish: 4th (38%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: 18pts
Up Next: at LV (10/8)
After the defeats of Sacramento Republic FC and Tacoma Defiance on Wednesday night, Los Dos is the side with the highest available points total among the teams shooting for fourth place. They can keep the pressure on their rivals with a win on Friday night against Las Vegas Lights FC at Cashman Field.
6. Sacramento Republic FC
6. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 8-11-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 29%
Projected Finish: 5th (27%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SD (10/9)
Sacramento’s up-and-down season took another downturn on Wednesday night in losing to Oakland Roots SC. They’ve got to bounce back strongly on the road against San Diego Loyal SC on Saturday, especially if the Galaxy II manage to take victory against Las Vegas Lights FC on Friday night.
6. Tacoma Defiance
7. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 8-12-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 15%
Projected Finish: 7th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: 21pts
Up Next: vs. OC (10/9)
The Defiance cannot find a win at this point, and now as they head home to face Orange County SC they no longer control their potential path to the playoffs after Wednesday night’s loss to Austin Bold FC.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 14-2-10, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (95%)
Max Points Available: 70pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: at TUL (10/9)
Locomotive FC claimed the Copa Tejas on Wednesday night, even if it did drop points in the race for best record in the Western Conference, and thanks to New Mexico United’s draw with Hartford Athletic it can now be guaranteed of a postseason berth on Saturday night as it visits FC Tulsa with either a win or a draw, as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Mexico. A draw between United and Rio Grande Valley FC would also clinch a playoff spot for Head Coach Mark Lowry’s squad.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 12-7-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish:2nd (56%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 10pts
Up Next: vs. MEM (10/10)
Kortne Ford’s stoppage time equalizer edged San Antonio ahead of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC for second place on Wednesday night, but the assignment this weekend’s contests the two sides get on Sunday seems trickier for SAFC as Memphis 901 FC arrives on Sunday evening at Toyota Field on a five-game undefeated streak.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-7-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 3rd (47%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 10pts
Up Next: at SLC (10/8)
The Switchbacks were probably the team stung most by San Antonio FC’s late equalizer against El Paso Locomotive FC, when a victory for the hosts would have maintained their edge for second place. Colorado Springs can at least put pressure on SAFC with a win against Real Monarchs SLC on Friday night as a playoff spot draws closer.
4. Austin Bold FC
4. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-7-9, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 45%
Projected Finish:5th (37%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 15pts
Up Next: vs. OKC (10/10)
Omar Gordon’s winner against Tacoma not only pushed Austin back into the playoff positions, but Bold FC still has a game in hand on New Mexico United and Rio Grande Valley FC. After those sides square off on Saturday night, Austin will try to take care of business at home to OKC Energy FC with the potential it could be down to one serious challenger for fourth place.
5. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 10-9-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 39%
Projected Finish: 4th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. RGV (10/9
New Mexico’s draw with Hartford was not the result it needed, and now it’s going to need help to get back ahead of Austin Bold FC. United has to help itself, too, by defeating Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday night in a high-pressure contest for both clubs.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 22%
Projected Finish: 6th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (10/9)
RGVFC could have done without that Austin Bold FC victory on Wednesday night, but it’s still in the mix with five games to go. After giving New Mexico United plenty to handle when they last met, the Toros have to find a way through in attack this time around and take all three points.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 15-5-7, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (73%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/9)
Louisville will take aim at all three points on Saturday night against Sporting Kansas City II to put pressure on Birmingham Legion FC to match it against Indy Eleven on Sunday evening. All signs still point to this race going down to the wire.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 15-7-5, 50pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (72%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (10/10)
Birmingham starts a run of four games out of five to close the regular season at BBVA Field on Sunday night against Indy Eleven, where a win for Legion FC could eliminate the visitors from contention depending on how Tulsa FC and Memphis 901 FC fare in their weekend matchups.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-11-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (65%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/9)
Tulsa will be looking to hold onto third place with Memphis 901 FC now only a point behind in the standings with six games to go for both sides. Hosting El Paso Locomotive FC – even with the visitors arriving on short rest after their 3-3 draw on Wednesday against San Antonio FC – is going to be a big test, though.
4. Memphis 901 FC
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 10-8-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 94%
Projected Finish: 4th (61%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 10pts
Up Next: at SA (10/10)
901 FC’s victory against Sporting Kansas City II could be the point of no return for its rivals for fourth place, all of whom now must make up ground while having fewer games remaining. Sunday’s game at San Antonio FC could be an intriguing one with Memphis on its current run of form as it gets to stack up with one of the best in the West.
5. OKC Energy FC
5. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-9-11, 35pts
Playoff Odds: 7%
Projected Finish: 5th (67%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ATX (10/10)
Energy FC’s playoff chances continued to slip away thanks to Memphis 901 FC’s victory on Wednesday night against Sporting Kansas City II. Now OKC is looking up at 901 FC in the standings while still having played two games more, and it might take winning out over the last four outings to jump back past them.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-12-10, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (63%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SKC (10/13)
Atlanta could be mathematically eliminated by the end of this weekend if both FC Tulsa and Memphis 901 FC take victory. It’s only a matter of time, though, regardless of how this weekend goes.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-13-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 1%
Projected Finish: 6th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (10/10)
Indy Eleven could be eliminated mathematically this weekend. If it loses to Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday and sees FC Tulsa and Memphis 901 FC take victories against their Mountain Division opponents, that’s it for the Boys in Blue.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 19-6-1, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/7); at PIT (10/10)
Tampa Bay can clinch the Atlantic Division title this week if it claims victory in both of its outings against the Charleston Battery and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, and could also do so with a win and a draw should Miami FC fail to take victory against Loudoun United FC on Sunday afternoon at Segra Field.
2. The Miami FC
2. The Miami FC
Record: 14-7-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (42%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: at LDN (10/10)
Miami could clinch its playoff place on Sunday with a victory on the road against Loudoun United FC should the Charleston Battery drop points in either of their games this weekend, and that would also keep the team on course for a second-place finish with crucial games against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (10/16) and the Tampa Bay Rowdies (10/20) still to come.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-8-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 4th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. TBR (10/10)
The Hounds can also clinch a playoff place this weekend should the Battery drop points to the Tampa Bay Rowdies side and Pittsburgh then defeat the Rowdies on Sunday evening. Should Pittsburgh only earn a draw with Tampa Bay on Sunday, it could still clinch a place in the playoffs if Charleston fails to take victory in each of its two contests, and if the Hounds fall for the first time at home to the Rowdies there’s still a chance to clinch if Charleston also loses to Tampa Bay and then draws with Hartford Athletic.
4. Charlotte Independence
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 14-9-4, 46pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (38%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: vs. NY (10/9)
The Independence got what they needed in terms of potentially clinching on Wednesday as Hartford Athletic drew 2-2 with New Mexico United. Now Charlotte will be hoping for the Charleston Battery to also drop points against the Tampa Bay Rowdies – a draw would drop Charleston’s maximum to 50pts, a loss to 49pts – which would mean an Independence win and a draw between the Battery and Athletic on Sunday afternoon – dropping Hartford to a maximum of 47pts and the Battery to a maximum of 48pts – would see the Independence home.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 8-10-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (58%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (10/7), vs. HFD (10/10)
There’s no other way to put this – the Battery have to win on Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, or else they could be looking at playoff elimination by the end of this weekend.
6. Hartford Athletic
6. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-13-4, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 5th (58%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at CHS (10/10)
After Wednesday’s night’s draw against New Mexico United, the Athletic could be eliminated by the end of this weekend’s action with Miami FC having a chance to go clear of them on points with a win, and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC having a chance to go clear with a draw and the Charlotte Independence with a win as both teams hold the head-to-head tiebreaker in the season series over Hartford, with the Hounds at 2-0-1 and Charlotte at 3-0-0 in their meetings so far this season.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

Follow the USL Championship

Most Recent News

Most Read News

Latest Videos