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THE MORNING TEA – LouCity Brings Mental Game to Playoff Drive

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/12/20, 7:30AM EDT

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Tulsa looking to gain upper hand in Black Gold Derby; Ketterer’s patience paying off in El Paso

We’ve got some key games in the race for the Championship Playoffs in the next two days, including some intriguing rivalry contests that include the third edition of the Kings’ Cup and the Donner Pass Derby and the second Black Gold Derby this season. We lead off by looking at the first of those matchups, and a stretch run that could provide numerous twists and turns before the final day of the season. Here’s your Morning Tea for Saturday.

 

THE BIG STORY

Don’t look now, but four weekends from now the 2020 USL Championship Playoffs are scheduled to kick off, and that means for teams in playoff contention around the league it’s crunch time when it comes to finding the ability to push through mentally as well as physically to earn the points needed for a playoff spot.

As we saw on Thursday night as Memphis 901 FC pulled out a victory it simply had to have to keep its hopes alive, that mental drive can produce some remarkable outcomes. It can also be highly taxing, especially for those in the thick of the action.

“Soccer is a mental game,” Louisville City FC’s Oscar Jimenez told the Louisville Courier-Journal’s Jonathan Saxon this week. “It’s battling with your own mind. There’s moments where you get fatigued. ‘Am I tired? Can I push through these next ten minutes?’ Pushing through those things and working on mentally staying tough is something that will get us through to the playoffs.”

LouCity hasn’t missed the postseason since it first arrived in the Championship in 2015, a streak bettered only by Sacramento Republic FC (every season since 2014) and the Charleston Battery (every season in the Championship era). Usually with five games to go, things are well in hand, with the side’s lowest finish in the Eastern Conference standings fourth place a year ago.

This is unlike any previous year, however, and thanks to the compressed schedule and Group format there’s every chance that the trio of LouCity (20pts), current first-place side Indy Eleven (22pts) and third-place Saint Louis FC (18pts) could be fighting it out to the final day of the season. Saturday, October 2 sees LouCity host the group’s fourth-placed side – and still dangerous – Sporting Kansas City II, while Saint Louis hosts Indy, with half-an-hour separating the two kickoffs.

In the opinion of LouCity Head Coach John Hackworth, chances are those two matches could end up de-facto playoff games before the official postseason arrives.

“I don’t think this will get sorted out until the very last game,” Hackworth told Saxon.

If there’s a reason to be confident that LouCity will be one of the two sides to advance, though, its ability to find strong finishes to the regular season is at the top of the list. After the struggles the side experienced following the season resumption, Louisville is undefeated in six games, continuing its annual run of stellar form when the calendar turns to August. Since 2016, the club is 34-6-16 in the Championship’s regular season between August 1 and the end of the regular season. That doesn’t include the numerous playoff wins the club has also racked up over that span, going to four consecutive Eastern Conference Finals and winning the past three.

With a home clash against Saint Louis FC set for Saturday night and then a trip to Indy Eleven next Wednesday up next on the schedule, though, LouCity’s mental strength is going to be tested as it looks to maintain its perfect postseason attendance record.

 

THIS WEEKEND'S ACTION

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12


Real Monarchs SLC vs. New Mexico United

(3-6-1)
Group C

2:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: Zions Bank Stadium

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: SLC Wins 40% | Draw 25% | NM Wins 35%
(6-3-2)
Group C
The Gist: Real Monarchs SLC will attempt to continue their late-season bid to reach the postseason as they play host to a New Mexico United side hoping to rebound from defeat in its last outing. United suffered a 3-2 loss away to El Paso Locomotive FC last Saturday night that reduced its lead at the top of the Group C standings to two points. New Mexico rebounded well after its previous loss during the season resumption, recording a three-game winning streak after falling to Phoenix Rising FC on August 8, a run that included two road victory against the Monarchs. The defending Championship title-holders appear to have turned a corner since then, however, and on Wednesday night picked up a 4-1 victory against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC that placed them eight points behind second-placed Locomotive FC with six games to go in the season. If the Monarchs are to reach the playoffs, this is another must-win, which could result in the potential for space for United’s counterattack to go to work again.
Discipline: None

Loudoun United FC vs. Philadelphia Union II

(1-7-2)
Group F

7:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: Segra Field

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: LDN Wins 48% | Draw 24% | PHI Wins 28%
(1-7-1)
Group F
The Gist: The postseason is likely out of reach for both Loudoun United FC and the Philadelphia Union II at this point, but both sides will be eager to break their recent three-game losing streaks as they meet at Segra Field. Loudoun is winless in six games overall since taking a 2-1 victory against the New York Red Bulls II on August 12, and in its last outing was unable to find a way past Hartford Athletic in a 2-1 defeat that moved second-placed Hartford 14 points ahead of United. The Union II have had similar struggles, and on Wednesday evening suffered a 6-0 defeat to the Red Bulls II at MSU Soccer Park. Sitting with a minus-23 goal differential overall, Philadelphia’s defense will need to be far better as it heads to Virginia.
Discipline: Loudoun – Timmy Mehl (Suspended)

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC vs. Hartford Athletic

(8-3-1)
Group F

7:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: Highmark Stadium

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: PIT Wins 74% | Draw 17% | HFD Wins 9%
(6-2-1)
Group F
The Gist: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC will look to maintain its upper hand on Hartford Athletic and extend its lead at the top of Group F when the sides meet at Highmark Stadium. Pittsburgh is coming off its best week of the campaign which saw it claim a pair of 3-0 victories against the New York Red Bulls II and Loudoun United FC, The Hounds now lead the Championship with 31 goals this season, and have opened a six-point lead on Hartford at the top of the group standings. The Athletic, however, have three games in hand on their rivals, meaning the Hounds are in need of a second win this season against Hartford to help ensure it remains in first place at the end of the regular season. Hartford itself is coming off a 2-1 victory against Loudoun United last Saturday night and will be hoping to give a better account of itself against the Hounds after suffering a 3-0 loss the first time the teams met.
Discipline: None

Atlanta United 2 vs. Miami FC

(2-7-3)
Group H

7:30 p.m. ET |
Venue: Fifth Third Bank Stadium

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: ATL Wins 26% | Draw 23% | MIA Wins 51%
(1-5-3)
Group H
The Gist: Both Atlanta United 2 and Miami FC are in a must-win situation when they meet at Fifth Third Bank Stadium. Miami is winless in its last three games after a 1-1 draw with the Charleston Battery last Saturday night left the side still 15 points behind second-placed Charleston in the Group H standings with seven games to play. Head Coach Paul Dalglish’s side hasn’t found a way past Atlanta yet either this season, and suffered a 4-3 defeat in its last trip to Georgia on July 29. Atlanta kept itself mathematically alive in the playoff race with a 2-1 victory against the Philadelphia Union II in its last outing on September 2, but even if the hosts should take victory again they could have been officially eliminated from playoff contention on Friday night depending on the result between the Charleston Battery and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Discipline: None

Birmingham Legion FC vs. Charlotte Independence

(6-2-4)
Group G

7:30 p.m. ET |
Venue: BBVA Field

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: BHM Wins 48% | Draw 25% | CLT Wins 26%
(5-3-3)
Group G
The Gist: Birmingham Legion FC will try to cool off the recent run of the Charlotte Independence as it looks to maintain its hold on first place in Group G when the playoff contenders meet at BBVA Field. Legion FC has been sitting in first place in the group for much of the resumption, but after a 2-1 loss to North Carolina FC and a 1-1 draw with Memphis 901 FC in its most recent outings its lead has been cut to four points at the top of the group. The Independence have made the inroads into Birmingham’s lead, and are coming off back-to-back victories against Memphis and North Carolina FC to take control of second place in the group. Dane Kelly starred in the Independence’s victory against NCFC, scoring his fourth hat trick in the Championship, and he will be one of two top Jamaican forwards likely to feature in this contest with Birmingham’s Neco Brett sitting tied for the club lead with six goals.
Discipline: None

Louisville City FC vs. Saint Louis FC

(6-3-2)
Group E

7:30 p.m. ET |
Venue: Lynn Family Stadium

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: LOU Wins 50% | Draw 27% | STL Wins 24%
(5-3-3)
Group E
The Gist: The third edition of this year’s Kings’ Cup returns to Lynn Family Stadium with Louisville City FC aiming to return to the top of the Group E standings against a Saint Louis FC side it has yet to defeat this season. LouCity powered into first place in the group last Saturday night as it took a 3-1 victory against Indy Eleven at Lucas Oil Stadium, but since that meeting Indy earned a 2-1 win against Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday night to move back ahead by two points in the standings. Louisville is on a six-game undefeated streak overall (4-0-2), but one of those two draws came against STLFC when the teams last met on August 29. The visitors on Saturday night, Saint Louis is also in need of three points as it now sits four points back of Indy for first place with five games to go in the regular season. After taking a 1-0 win behind a goal from Tyler Blackwood when it first visited Lynn Family Stadium earlier this season, STLFC will be hopeful of a repeat performance to boost their playoff chances.
Discipline: None

FC Tulsa vs. OKC Energy FC

(3-2-6)
Group D

8:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: ONEOK Field

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: TUL Wins 47% | Draw 27% | OKC Wins 25%
(1-5-5)
Group D
The Gist: The second edition of the Black Gold Derby lands in downtown Tulsa on Saturday night as FC Tulsa looks to continue its pursuit of a first postseason berth since 2017 against in-state rival OKC Energy FC at ONEOK Field. Tulsa raised its playoff prospects going into its last five games of the season after playing to a pair of draws on the road against Austin Bold FC over the past week. Dario Suarez has been in sparkling form for Tulsa with five goals in the past three games, and he and his teammates will be hoping that run continues against an Energy FC side that while not out of the playoff picture still needs to make up a seven-point gap to Austin and Tulsa in the Group D standings with five games to go. OKC is looking for its first win since July 17 after playing to a 0-0 draw with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC last Saturday, but this is one that the side has to have for its playoff chances as well as local bragging rights.
Discipline: OKC - Zach Ellis-Hayden (Suspended)

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. San Antonio FC

(5-2-3)
Group C

9:30 p.m. ET |
Venue: Southwest University Park

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: ELP Wins 33% | Draw 27% | SA Wins 41%
(8-0-3)
Group D
The Gist: A potential playoff preview arrives at Southwest University Park on Saturday night as second-placed El Paso Locomotive FC from Group C plays host to Group D leader San Antonio FC looking to become the first side to hand SAFC defeat this regular season. San Antonio continued its undefeated run through the regular season last Saturday night as it earned a 3-2 victory against Rio Grande Valley FC as Luis Solignac tied the record for the fastest goal in Championship regular season history after nine seconds. The Argentine forward now has a team-high six goals this season, and alongside Cristian Parano and homegrown standout Jose Gallegos forms a dangerous attack that El Paso will have to contend with. Locomotive FC, though, is coming off its own impressive win last time out as it defeated New Mexico United 3-2 thanks to a late goal by Dylan Mares. The win moved Locomotive FC within two points of United at the top of Group C, and dependent on the result earlier in the day between Real Monarchs SLC and New Mexico, El Paso could have a chance to move into first place with a win in this matchup.
Discipline: None

Sacramento Republic FC vs. Reno 1868 FC

(7-1-3)
Group A

10:30 p.m. ET |
Venue: Papa Murphy’s Park

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: SAC Wins 38% | Draw 27% | RNO Wins 35%
(8-2-0)
Group A
The Gist: First place in Group A is on the line as Sacramento Republic FC plays host to Reno 1868 FC for the third meeting between the Donner Pass Derby rivals this season. Sacramento has taken victory in each of the past two meetings, each by a 1-0 score-line, and enters Saturday on a six-game winning streak overall after a brilliant comeback victory against Orange County SC that saw the side score twice late despite being down to 10 men to earn a 2-1 victory. That result moved Republic FC level on points with Reno at the top of the group standings, although 1868 FC does have a game in hand on its rivals with six games left in its schedule overall. Reno is on its own four-game winning streak since its last meeting with Sacramento and has regained its scoring touch with a seven-goal performance last weekend against the Portland Timbers 2. With first place offering both homefield in the opening round of the playoffs, victory would be massive for both sides as they enter the final stretch of the season.
Discipline: Sacramento – Rodrigo Lopez (Suspended)

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13


North Carolina FC vs. Memphis 901 FC

(3-6-1)
Group G

6:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: Sahlen’s Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: NC Wins 50% | Draw 25% | MEM Wins 25%
(2-5-4)
Group G
The Gist: After the drama of Thursday night, North Carolina FC and Memphis 901 FC square off for a second time this week now even on points and both needing victory for their respective playoff chances. Memphis claimed a thrilling 3-2 win when the sides met for the first time on Thursday night as Matt Hundley’s second goal of the game in the eighth minute of stoppage time earned victory for 901 FC after NCFC had rallied back from a two-goal deficit late in the second half. Both teams will enter the weekend eight points behind the second-placed Charlotte Independence, who play on Saturday night against first-place Birmingham Legion FC. Finding a way to take all three points to potentially close that gap should make for another compelling contest.
Discipline: None

San Diego Loyal SC vs. Orange County SC

(4-4-4)
Group B

10:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: Torero Stadium

FiveThirtyEight.com Predictor: SD Wins 31% | Draw 30% | OC Wins 39%
(5-3-3)
Group B
The Gist: San Diego Loyal SC or Orange County SC could be in second place in Group B by the end of Sunday night as the sides meet at Torero Stadium after differing midweek results brought SD Loyal within two points of the second-placed LA Galaxy II and third-placed Orange County. San Diego produced its best attacking performance of the season on Wednesday night in a 3-0 win against Los Dos as Miguel Berry scored twice and Rubio Rubin notched a goal on his debut for the club in the first half. SD Loyal was then boosted by Orange County’s 2-1 loss against Sacramento Republic FC a short time later on Wednesday night, a result that saw Orange County sit up a goal and with a man advantage with 30 minutes to go, only for Republic FC to rally to victory. OCSC will be aiming to rebound from that performance and produce something resembling its 2-0 win when the sides last met at Torero Stadium on August 12, and in turn move three points ahead of the Galaxy II into second place in the standings.
Discipline: None
 

THE SOCIAL CIRCLE

 

THE USL LOWDOWN

- Zeiko Lewis scored the only goal as the Charleston Battery took a 1-0 victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Friday night and moved within three points of the Group H leaders. With a game in hand on the Rowdies, the Battery are now in position to make it a race to first place over the final weeks of the regular season.

- Phoenix Rising FC extended its lead to eight points at the top of Group B with a 5-1 victory against Las Vegas Lights FC for its sixth consecutive home win at Casino Arizona Field. The Arizona Republic’s Lorenzino Estrada was on hand as the hosts took victory while welcoming 979 socially-distanced fans to their home venue for the first time since the season resumed.

- New Mexico United can move within range of a place in the 2020 Championship Playoffs if it can take victory on Saturday afternoon against Real Monarchs SLC. The Albuquerque Journal’s Ken Sickenger dug into the numbers ahead of what should be a must-see matinee at Zions Bank Stadium.

- FC Tulsa can gain the upper hand in this year’s edition of the Black Gold Derby and in the race for second place in Group D as it takes on OKC Energy FC at ONEOK Field on Saturday night. The Tulsa World’s Barry Lewis looks ahead to the clash, which sees Tulsa’s Dario Suarez entering on a run of five goals in the past three games.

- Sitting in third place to start the day in Group E, Saint Louis FC faces a crucial visit to Louisville City FC on Saturday night at Lynn Family Stadium. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Joe Lyons looks ahead to the contest between two rivals who have become even more familiar this season.

- El Paso Locomotive FC can take a big step toward the postseason on Saturday night with another victory, but will have to do something no other club has done this season as it hosts undefeated San Antonio FC at Southwest University Park. KTSM’s Andy Morgan looked ahead to the potential postseason preview.

- Hartford Athletic has a busy few weeks ahead with seven games still to play in the regular season. Ahead of Saturday’s game at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, the Journal Inquirer’s Adam Betz spoke with defender Sam Strong and Head Coach Radhi Jaidi about coming through in a positive fashion to clinch a place in the postseason.

- Reno 1868 FC will try to overcome the only side to have handed it defeat this season as it visits Sacramento Republic FC for the third Donner Pass Derby of the season on Saturday night. After suffering one-goal defeats and being held scoreless each of the past two meetings, Head Coach Ian Russell believes there’s positive motivation for the side as it looks to clinch a playoff spot.

- Orange County SC will have two new faces available for Sunday’s key game against San Diego Loyal SC after signing Honduras international Alexis Cerritos and 16-year-old Raymond Drai to professional deals this week. OCSC is looking to bounce back from a midweek loss against Sacramento Republic FC and keep San Diego from overtaking it for second place at Torero Stadium.

- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC has a core of veterans in its squad, but its newer arrivals to the professional ranks have also been key to the club’s success this season. Pittsburgh Soccer Now’s John Krysinsky looked at the first- and second-year pros that have made an important impact ahead of Saturday’s game with Hartford Athletic.

- Goalkeepers can tend to have to be patient to get their break, in both college and the professional ranks. That’s the way it turned out for Logan Ketterer, but now as the starter for El Paso Locomotive FC he’s found a solid starting position in the Championship. The Bradley Scout’s Larry Larson went one-on-one with Locomotive FC’s solid shot-stopper.

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